Glenrothes - it was NOT close

To say that Labour hung on in Glenrothes would be an understatement. Labour comfortably held the seat, actually increasing their share of votes by 3%. The SNP vote did go up, facilitated by a collapse in the Lib Dems, who were down 10%. The Tories did push the Lib Dems into fourth place, but will have little to celebrate, as they too lost their deposit.

The pundits said it would be close, the punters said it would be close. Labour were writing off their chances - which will now be seen as skillful expectations management. Alex Salmond, hubristically, was declaring a "political earthquake", and even on the day of the poll had been forecasting an SNP win.

If ever there was a reminder to politicians, that it is not over until the votes are counted, this is it. Alex Salmond should have studied more carefully the famous 'Sheffield Rally' where Neil Kinnock threw away his chances of victory in 1992 with a triumphalist, congratulatory display - before the votes had even been cast.

Alex Salmond's honeymoon is over. In this particular by-election, the SNP were in the position of defending their position as the establishment, not only in the Scottish parliament, but also as leaders of the local authority. And although this was a safe Labour seat in 2005, with a majority of over 10,000, the SNP did win a seat with about 80% of the same electors in the Scottish parliament elections in 2007.

So how did Labour win?

A relentless Labour campaign, focussed on a simple message about increased charges for home-help, brought in by the local SNP council, and other general scaremongering and negative campaigning has been cited by Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP deputy leader as a major factor. But this is an over simplification.

Unlike in Glasgow East, Labour selected a credible, local candidate, Lindsay Roy, known throughout the community due to his long career in education, as headmaster of Brown's old school. The SNP candidate, Peter Grant was also a credible local man, and on the whole fought an effective campaign, although there was the occasional gaffe.

And of course, Gordon Brown is a local boy. There was much made of this by-election being in his backyard. And he and his wife, campaigned in the constituency. Was it that his fellow Fifemen weren't prepared to kick one of their own, which the Glaswegians were willing to do?

However, I think that the real factor here is Gordon's performance in dealing with the global economic crisis. Whether he can be blamed for having contributed to the problems is almost irrelevant, to voters, who I believe will make judgements about who is to blame in the future. What Gordon has shown, is that in the short-term, it is he, who is providing leadership in charting a course out of the troubled economic waters.


So where does this leave the parties?

Labour will have been boosted by a strong performance. It is clear evidence that there has been a recovery. More than this, it is a signal that the Labour's core voters are willing to turn out to support the party. We have probably seen the bottom of Labour's recent collapse in popularity.

The SNP threat, for the time being, has receded in Scotland. At the next general election, voters know that they will be voting for the UK government, and I think that Scottish voters will vote tactically to keep Labour in power in Westminster.

The Liberal Democrats came second in Scotland in the 2005 general election by share of the vote. They should be concerned that in two by-elections in Scotland in the last six months, they have been unable to build or even hold their share of the vote. Granted, Glasgow East is not their sort of area, but to have their share of the vote go down by 10% in Glenrothes, is not particularly reassuring.

We all know that the next election battle will be between the Conservatives and Labour, and for the most part, this battle will be decided in the Midlands and North of England. David Cameron cannot now rely on the SNP to chip away at Labour's MPs in Scotland. They may lose a few, but I don't think it will be more than a handful.

Although it is difficult to make predictions and extrapolations from a by-election, it shows that Labour's core support has not abandoned the party. Hence, Cameron needs to redouble his efforts to appeal to voters in middle England, and he needs to fight for every vote at the next general election.

Glenrothes by-election

So the next challenge for Gordon Brown is defending Glenrothes in the by-election on November 6th. Gordon has done enough for now to prevent a leadership contest which might have been precipitated by a failure to win 'in his backyard'.

So what do we know about Glenrothes? It's a new seat created in 2005 when the number of Scottish constituencies was reduced. It is mostly made up of the former Fife Central constituency. In 2005, Labour polled 19,395 votes on a turnout of 56.1% with a majority of 10,664 over the SNP - who were in second place. In otherwords - it is a solid Labour area focussed on the New Town of Glenrothes.

The constituency borders Gordon Brown's own fiefdom in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.

In any normal times, anything other than a clear victory for Labour here would be inconceivable. However that has all changed following the SNP's recent success in the Glasgow East by-election, building on their success in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2007. Paddy Power currently has the SNP odds-on favourites to win at 2:5.

The question is - have Labour's fortunes changed following the Glasgow East disaster?

I think that they may have. The Glasgow East by-election campaign by Labour was a shambles. First there was the problems over finding a candidate (amazing given the seat was a rock-solid prospect). Second there was the refusal of Gordon to campaign in the constituency. Third - and most significantly - economic gloom was high. Petrol and food prices had risen astronomically. There had been the fiasco over the 10p tax rate which would have affected many in this constituency (even though it was resolved prior to this by-election).

There was a general view that Labour was not listening. Gordon was busily 'getting on with the job' which to most of the public appeared to be producing very little output. They felt as though their personal financial situation was declining, the Government was doing little to help and they wanted to 'send a message'.

So what has changed since?

The economic gloom has increased: Two of Scotland's leading companies, HBOS and RBS have required a bail-out from UK plc. Predictions of recession are widespread. House prices are falling.

On the surface, this doesn't look as though Labour's chances of holding on have improved.

However, I think that the key change is that Gordon Brown has been attracting far more positive media coverage. Rescuing the banks, striding the world stage - he now looks more as though he has a grip on events, rather than being buffeted by them.

I also think that Alex Salmond - while a very canny and shrewd operator who shouldn't be written off - has had part of his sheen removed by the fact that two Scottish banks were effectively rescued by the UK taxpayer. Would his cherished Independent Scotland have been able to perform such a rescue? Previous suggestions that Scotland could join an arc of prosperity including Ireland (in recession already), Iceland (bankrupt) and Norway (in economic difficulties) now sound less reassuring to voters.

But voters are not voting for a General Election or indeed for the Scottish Parliament. This is a by-election - and traditionally voters take the opportunity to 'kick' the ruling party. The SNP are the ruling party in Scotland, but have been enjoying the longest political honeymoon in history, and it is the Westminster party that will receive the 'kicking'.

I think that will be a lot closer than the bookies suggest.