Glenrothes by-election

So the next challenge for Gordon Brown is defending Glenrothes in the by-election on November 6th. Gordon has done enough for now to prevent a leadership contest which might have been precipitated by a failure to win 'in his backyard'.

So what do we know about Glenrothes? It's a new seat created in 2005 when the number of Scottish constituencies was reduced. It is mostly made up of the former Fife Central constituency. In 2005, Labour polled 19,395 votes on a turnout of 56.1% with a majority of 10,664 over the SNP - who were in second place. In otherwords - it is a solid Labour area focussed on the New Town of Glenrothes.

The constituency borders Gordon Brown's own fiefdom in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.

In any normal times, anything other than a clear victory for Labour here would be inconceivable. However that has all changed following the SNP's recent success in the Glasgow East by-election, building on their success in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2007. Paddy Power currently has the SNP odds-on favourites to win at 2:5.

The question is - have Labour's fortunes changed following the Glasgow East disaster?

I think that they may have. The Glasgow East by-election campaign by Labour was a shambles. First there was the problems over finding a candidate (amazing given the seat was a rock-solid prospect). Second there was the refusal of Gordon to campaign in the constituency. Third - and most significantly - economic gloom was high. Petrol and food prices had risen astronomically. There had been the fiasco over the 10p tax rate which would have affected many in this constituency (even though it was resolved prior to this by-election).

There was a general view that Labour was not listening. Gordon was busily 'getting on with the job' which to most of the public appeared to be producing very little output. They felt as though their personal financial situation was declining, the Government was doing little to help and they wanted to 'send a message'.

So what has changed since?

The economic gloom has increased: Two of Scotland's leading companies, HBOS and RBS have required a bail-out from UK plc. Predictions of recession are widespread. House prices are falling.

On the surface, this doesn't look as though Labour's chances of holding on have improved.

However, I think that the key change is that Gordon Brown has been attracting far more positive media coverage. Rescuing the banks, striding the world stage - he now looks more as though he has a grip on events, rather than being buffeted by them.

I also think that Alex Salmond - while a very canny and shrewd operator who shouldn't be written off - has had part of his sheen removed by the fact that two Scottish banks were effectively rescued by the UK taxpayer. Would his cherished Independent Scotland have been able to perform such a rescue? Previous suggestions that Scotland could join an arc of prosperity including Ireland (in recession already), Iceland (bankrupt) and Norway (in economic difficulties) now sound less reassuring to voters.

But voters are not voting for a General Election or indeed for the Scottish Parliament. This is a by-election - and traditionally voters take the opportunity to 'kick' the ruling party. The SNP are the ruling party in Scotland, but have been enjoying the longest political honeymoon in history, and it is the Westminster party that will receive the 'kicking'.

I think that will be a lot closer than the bookies suggest.